Based on our research process at LeafScore, we predict an average price of around $3.68 for home solar in North Carolina in 2023. This would make a 5 kW array cost in the region of $18,400 and a 9.22 kW array cost around $34,000.
North Carolina ranks fourth in the U.S. in 2021 for total installed solar capacity and actual energy generation. Much of this is thanks to North Carolinians who have also installed rooftop solar to keep high monthly utility bills in check. To fully offset household electricity use, expect to pay around $34,000 for a 9.22 kW array in 2023 in North Carolina, with a solar payback period of 9-11 years on average.
North Carolina households use more electricity each month than almost everywhere else in the U.S. This is largely thanks to hot summers and cold winters, with energy inefficient, leaky homes requiring a lot of energy for cooling and heating. No wonder, then, that rooftop solar is popular here. Despite an initial price tag of around $34,000, most North Carolinians stand to save a lot of money each month by going solar, meaning a short payback period and plentiful savings long-term.
NC Doesn’t Provide Data on Solar Installs
Unlike in many states, North Carolina doesn’t provide data on actual residential solar installations. This means we have to use a variety of other sources to find the likely cost of going solar in North Carolina. One thing we’ve seen in other states is that online solar quote marketplaces consistently underestimate (by as much as 80 percent!) the cost of residential solar. These sites typically quote a cost per Watt far below actual costs and use a much smaller system than most households need to meet electricity demands.
To more accurately reflect the cost of going solar in North Carolina, we use data from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s Tracking the Sun report, national average prices paid for home solar in 2022, and forecasts for the price of solar in 2023. We also account for that discrepancy between real-life costs and online quotes, to provide a better reflection of the likely cost of solar in North Carolina in 2023.
The cost of home solar in North Carolina
The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) gives a figure of $2.95 per Watt (DC) as the modeled market price (MMP) for the U.S. as a whole in 2022. In other states, such as Arizona, California, and Oregon, we’ve found this figure to be quite a bit lower than the cost of real-life installations. The NREL’s MMP is typically higher, however, than most online solar quotes.
Arguably the most reliable data we have comes from the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory’s Tracking the Sun report, as well as California’s Distributed Generation Statistics (CDGS). Absent data from North Carolina itself, we use these data sets to work out the likely cost of residential solar in the state.
| Cost per Watt | Cost for 5 kW system | Cost for 9.22 kW system | |
| Online quote marketplaces | $3.02 | $15,100 | $27,844 |
| Quotes factoring in average discrepancy | $4.80 | $24,022 | $44,296 |
| NREL | $2.95 | $14,750 | $27,199 |
| LBNL mean average January 2022 | $2.48 | $12,400 | $22,866 |
| LBNL mean average 2021 | $3.30 | $16,500 | $30,426 |
| Leafscore prediction for 2023 | $3.68 | $18,400 | $33,930 |
With little data available for 2022 installations, and none for North Carolina itself, it’s difficult to accurately predict the cost of solar in the state for 2023. What we do know is that despite online quote marketplaces typically using a 5 kW model for estimates, most North Carolinians are going to need an array around 9.22 kW in size if they want to offset 100 percent of electricity use.
And, while the cost of solar will likely decrease over 2023 in North Carolina, it seems unlikely it will go as low as the NREL’s national estimate of $2.95 per Watt or be as low as the January 2022 figure of $2.48 from LBNL.
Taking in data from all these sources, we predict an average price of around $3.68 for home solar in North Carolina in 2023. This would make a 5 kW array cost in the region of $18,400 and a 9.22 kW array cost around $34,000.
How big a solar array do you need in North Carolina?
Hot summers and cold winters make for high electricity use in North Carolina. The state is in the top five for residential electricity use countrywide, according to the Energy Information Administration (EIA). So, while the cost of electricity in North Carolina is lower than the national average, monthly utility bills are still quite high for most homeowners.
The average North Carolina resident uses around 1,100 kWh monthly, or 13,200 kWh annually. That means many homeowners will need around a 9.22 kW solar array to meet those higher electricity demands, according to the SunWatts calculator. Most online quotes for home solar, which are typically based on a 5 kW system, are very unlikely to reflect the true cost of going solar in North Carolina.
Lowering the cost of solar in North Carolina – tax credits, incentives, and tax exemptions
North Carolina isn’t especially generous when it comes to solar incentives. That said, if you’re quick, you can apply for the Duke Energy Carolinas residential solar rebate program up until January 18, 2023. Installing a 10 kW system interconnected with Duke Energy could net you a $4,000 rebate!
Other than this utility rebate, North Carolinians looked to lower the cost of going solar will have to make do with the 30 percent federal tax credit and a statewide 80 percent property tax exemption.
North Carolina utilities also offer various forms of net metering, which can help reduce utility bills to increase savings after going solar at home.
Find out more about North Carolina state solar incentives here.
How much does electricity cost in North Carolina?
The Energy Information Administration (EIA) cites an average cost of 9.29 cents per kilowatt hour for residential electricity in North Carolina in 2021. In August 2022, however, the average cost was cited as 13.23 cents per kWh. The actual amount a homeowner in the state pays will depend on their individual tariff and how much electricity they use each month, with higher costs above certain usage thresholds and at different times of day and year.
Many homeowners in North Carolina have higher utility bills than the national average. This is because electricity is heavily used to heat homes in winter and cool homes in summer. Based on EIA data, the average North Carolina household uses around 13,200 kWh of electricity annually. This works out to an average annual cost of $1,746 for electricity.
Assuming a solar array meets all household electricity needs, and that there’s no inflation over the next 25 years (the typical warranty period for solar panels), homeowners might expect to save the following by going solar:
- $8,730 over five years
- $17,460 over 10 years
- $26,190 over 15 years
- $43,650 over 25 years.
As it stands in early January 2023, though, inflation is at 7.1% in the U.S. And even the historic rate of inflation is around 2.4%. This means homeowners are likely to save much more by going solar in 2023 than the estimates above. At a 2.4% rate of inflation, savings look more like:
- $9,161 over five years
- $19,476 over 10 years
- $31,089 over 15 years
- $61,948 over 25 years.
How much you save by going solar will depend on the actual output of the array, any increases in electricity costs and consumption, and things like battery storage, net metering, and other incentives.
Putting it all together – Your solar payback period in North Carolina
Online quotes typically suggest a cost of between $13,000 and $18,000 for going solar at home in North Carolina. Such quotes are almost always underestimates of the actual cost of completed installations, which can cause homeowners to despair when faced with a final bill for home solar.
Knowing the likely cost to be in the region of $34,000 for a larger array in North Carolina can help homeowners make more informed decisions. And that higher cost need not mean solar isn’t cost efficient. In fact, by sizing up to an array that meets 100 percent of household electricity needs, homeowners stand to save significantly more money long-term.
The sweet spot where a home solar array generates enough savings to offset the upfront cost is known as the solar payback period. After that point, any savings are genuine savings, meaning more money left in your account each month.
Here are a few possible solar payback scenarios for North Carolina. Our models use average electricity use but look at different array sizes and rates of inflation.
Assuming a 2.4% inflation rate and average energy use and costs
Gross cost of a 5 kW solar array = $3.68/Watt x 5,000 = $18,400
Federal tax credit of 30% = $5,520
Net cost of solar = $12,880
Cost of electricity = $0.1323 per kWh
Average electricity use in North Carolina = 13,200 kWh per year
Estimated cost of electricity for first 11 years = $21,689
Eleven-year savings (assuming array meets 60% of electricity needs) = $13,014
Solar payback period = Just under 11 years.
Assuming a 7.1% increase in electricity costs each year and average electricity use
Gross cost of a 5 kW solar array = $3.68/Watt x 5,000 = $18,400
Federal tax credit of 30% = $5,520
Net cost of solar = $12,880
Cost of electricity = $0.1323 per kWh
Average electricity use in North Carolina = 13,200 kWh per year
Estimated cost of electricity for first 9 years = $21,005
Nine-year savings (assuming array meets 60% of electricity needs) = $12,603
Solar payback period = Just over 9 years.
Assuming a 2.4% inflation rate and average energy use and costs but a larger array
Gross cost of a 9.22 kW solar array = $3.68/Watt x 9,220 kW = $33,930
Federal tax credit of 30% = $10,179
Net cost of solar = $23,751
Cost of electricity = $0.1323 per kWh
Average electricity use in North Carolina = 13,200 kWh per year
Estimated cost of electricity for first 11 years = $23,956
Nine-year savings (assuming array meets 100% of electricity needs) = $23,956
Solar payback period = just under 11 years.
Assuming a 7.1% inflation rate and average energy use and costs but a larger array
Gross cost of a 9.22 kW solar array = $3.68/Watt x 9,220 kW = $33,930
Federal tax credit of 30% = $10,179
Net cost of solar = $23,751
Cost of electricity = $0.1323 per kWh
Average electricity use in North Carolina = 13,200 kWh per year
Estimated cost of electricity for first 10 years = $24,243
Ten-year savings (assuming array meets 100% of electricity needs) = $24,243
Solar payback period = just under 10 years.
Our calculations suggest that whether homeowners choose a 5 kW or 9.22 kW array in North Carolina, the solar payback period is likely in the region of 9-11 years. The difference, though, is that after that point, North Carolinians who install a larger array stand to keep savings substantially more each month by offsetting almost all their electricity costs.
Find a Solar Energy partner near you.
Final thoughts on the cost of going solar in North Carolina
With few state solar incentives and expiring rebates, North Carolina isn’t as solar friendly as you might expect, given the vast number of residential solar arrays already installed. One of the main reasons homeowners here choose to go solar is to offset some of the highest electricity bills in the U.S.
Going solar in North Carolina comes with a likely payback period of 9-11 years, depending on inflation and the size of the array, as well as eligibility for the federal tax credit and other factors. This means the majority of North Carolinians stand to enjoy well over a decade of free electricity within a typical solar panel warranty period and likely 20 years or more depending on the panels’ ongoing output.
Over 25 years, going solar could save North Carolina homeowners in the region of $65,000 on electricity costs. Savings would be even higher if inflation remains high for the next few years. And with solar panels on the roof, homeowners are protected against sudden rate hikes, have a backup source of power during grid outages (depending on the system design), and can appreciate better air quality and clean, green energy from the sun.