Based on data from actual interconnected installations, the 2022 average cost of a solar array in San Francisco County was $30,217 for a 6.21 kW system.
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Factor in the 30% federal solar tax credit and your net cost would be just $21,152! As for your solar payback period in San Francisco, this could be as short as six years, thanks to the high cost of electricity in SF.
Fog Over Frisco is one of my favorite movies, but even in the city known for its rolling fog clouding the Golden Gate Bridge, a home solar array can still generate electricity.
At what cost, though? Is going solar in San Francisco too expensive to make it worthwhile? As always, it depends!
To help you arrive at the correct numbers for your house, let’s start with a look at the average cost of an installation in 2022 in San Francisco County, followed by the use and cost of energy per household in San Francisco.
The cost of home solar in San Francisco
I used data from California Distributed Generation Statistics to establish the average cost of home solar in San Francisco County in 2022.
From these numbers, we can estimate costs for 2023 as well.
According to the data, there were just over 3,800 completed and interconnected solar photovoltaic installations in San Francisco County in 2022. Of these, 76 included storage. The average system size was a bit higher for systems without storage. I only included the data for systems owned by the homeowner (not a third-party) and installed by professional solar installers (not the homeowner). I also omitted installations that included EV chargers and other complicating factors, such as mixed rooftop and ground-mount systems.
Here’s the breakdown of the average cost and size of rooftop residential solar installations in San Francisco in 2022.
| USD | average system size DC (kW) | average system size AC (kW) | Cost per Watt (AC) installed USD | |
| Average cost of all residential rooftop solar energy systems installed and interconnected in 2022 | $30,217 | 6.37 | 6.21 | 4.87 |
| Average cost of residential rooftop solar energy systems without storage installed and interconnected in 2022 | $28,982 | 6.59 | 6.42 | 4.51 |
| Average cost of residential rooftop solar energy systems with storage installed and interconnected in 2022 | $35,762 | 5.39 | 5.27 | 6.79 |
As you can see from the table, the average cost for home solar in San Francisco in 2022 works out to $4.87 per Watt (AC). Systems with storage come in at an average of $6.79/W and those without storage are less costly at $4.51/W.
As we’ve seen in other areas, like LA, these averages are quite a bit higher than estimates given on several solar online marketplaces. EnergySage, for instance, suggests a cost of just $2.91/W, working out to a total system cost of $14,550 for a 5 kW rooftop array. This is about half of the reported costs from the actual installations.
Getting really granular
A closer look at the data from CDGS shows that SunPower panels accounted for more than a quarter of all installations in SF in 2022. These panels remain the most efficient at converting the sun’s energy into electricity. Installations using SunPower panels cost an average of $37,458 in 2022 in SF. This is quite a bit higher than the overall average, but these installations were also larger overall, at an average of more than 8 kW (AC). This works out to a cost per Watt of $4.60 for SunPower panels in San Francisco in 2022.
At the other end of the scale, installations using Hanwha (Q Cells) were considerably lower cost at $23,367. The system size was also quite a bit smaller, however, at 4.89 kW. This works out to a cost of $4.78/W, which is actually higher than for SunPower panels!
Solar costs in the Bay Area are higher than most marketplaces report
If the real life costs of actual solar installations in San Francisco County are a bit higher than you’d been led to believe by solar energy marketplaces, consider two things:
- the average installed system size was larger than 5 kW used to estimate costs on many other websites;
- these are gross costs before rebates and credits.
Many homeowners can access local and utility rebates and the federal tax credit to help reduce the cost of going solar in SF. For instance, with the federal tax credit of 30% reinstated in 2022, the average net cost of a solar array in San Francisco County would be $21,152.
In short, the true cost of going solar in SF depends on:
- The actual size of the array
- The complexity of the installation
- Your chosen installer
- Which equipment you choose to install
- Whether you opt for battery storage
- Any rebates and tax credits you can claim.
The nice thing about San Francisco, too, is that the solar energy market is so well established that you can easily get several quotes from installers all competing for your business. This isn’t a case where a couple of providers have a monopoly and zero wiggle room on price.
Remember, too, that the incredibly high cost of electricity in San Francisco means most homeowners stand to save a lot of money by going solar. This makes for a much shorter solar payback period in San Francisco than elsewhere in the U.S., which we’ll work out below.
How much energy do San Franciscans use and how much does it cost?
Working out how much energy the average household uses is tricky at best. Some online estimates put the number at close to 10,000 kilowatt hours annually for households in San Francisco, based on average utility bills. However, I ran the numbers using different data and believe it’s probably quite a bit lower than that.
Between 2016 and 2020, there were 362,141 households in San Francisco County, according to census data. These households used 1593.92 Gigawatt hours of energy in total in 2021, according to the California Energy Board. That works out to approximately 4401 kWh per household each year.
The census also puts the average number of persons per household at 2.34, meaning a per capita (person) energy consumption of 1880.77 kWh. So, to figure out your likely household energy use, multiply that number by how many people live in your house.
The cost of that electricity varies depending on whatever deal a homeowner has with Pacific Gas and Electric (PGE), the main provider of electricity in San Francisco. On average, though, the cost of residential electricity in SF in October 2022 was a staggering 30.7 cents per kWh. This is 84.9% more than the nationwide average of 16.6 c/kWh. The Bureau of Labor and Statistics notes that in each of the past five years, San Franciscans have paid at least 57.4% more for electricity than the national average.
Put that all together and you’re looking at an annual energy bill of around $1351 for a household in San Francisco.
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How much can you save by going solar in San Francisco?
Most homeowners in San Francisco get their electricity from PG&E. As we’ve seen, the cost of electricity is way higher in SF than elsewhere in the country. Assuming you’re paying that high rate and don’t get a discount for some reason or other, and assuming your home solar array is appropriately sized to meet all your electricity needs, you’re looking at saving around $1351 on your utility bill in the first year after installing solar.
Let’s now assume a low rate of inflation (1.2%) and extrapolate out. At this rate, based on annual electricity consumption of just 4,400 kWh, your savings could amount to $4,101 in the first five years, $18,883 after 15 years, and $39,111 over 25 years.
Let’s assume you’re actually using 9,644 kWh annually, though, which is the U.S. average. At the same rate of inflation (1.2%), your savings look more like:
- $15,163 after five years
- $31,258.11 after 10 years
- $48,342.27 after 15 years
- $93,751.64 after 25 years.
That’s right, a home solar array could save you an incredible $93,000 over the lifetime of the panels. And that’s assuming just a 1.2% rate of inflation. At the time of writing, the actual inflation rate in the U.S. was 8.2%. Plug in that inflation rate and you’re looking at savings of:
- $17,438.69 after five years
- $43,299.99 after 10 years
- $81,651.86 after 15 years
- $267,085.82 after 25 years.
Your actual savings will depend on your current electricity tariff, changes to energy costs in the future, how much electricity you use, how well your array functions, and other factors.
Putting it all together – Your solar payback period in San Francisco
Even a quick look at the figures above strongly suggest that it makes a lot of financial sense to go solar at home in San Francisco. With an average installation cost of $30,217 for a 6.21 kW system, or $21,152 after the federal tax credit, your panels will pay for themselves over the course of their life and generate clean energy while you save on your utility bill.
If high inflation sticks around for the next few years, though, your solar payback period could be much faster.
Here are a few examples:
- Assuming no increase in electricity costs over 2022 prices (which is extremely unlikely!)
Gross cost of a 6 kW solar array = $4.87/Watt x 6000 = $29,220
Federal tax credit of 30% = $8,766
Net cost of solar = $20,454
Cost of electricity in San Francisco = $0.307/kWh
Average electricity use in San Francisco = 4400 kWh per year
Average annual cost of electricity = $1350.80
Annual savings (assuming 90% of energy bill offset by going solar) = $1,215.72
Solar payback period = $20,454/$1,215.72 = 16 years and 10 months
- Assuming the current 8.2% rate of inflation continues
Gross cost of a 6 kW solar array = $4.87/Watt x 6000 = $29,220
Federal tax credit of 30% = $8,766
Net cost of solar = $20,454
Cost of electricity in San Francisco = $0.307/kWh
Average electricity use in San Francisco = 4400 kWh per year
Estimated cost of electricity for first 10 years = $17,515.15
Estimated cost of electricity for years 11 and 12 = $5283.11
Twelve-year savings (assuming 90% of energy bill offset by going solar) = $20,518.44
Solar payback period = just over 12 years
Now let’s assume you’re closer to using the national average of 9,644 kWh annually, not the 4,400 we estimated from census data, and that inflation remains high. This time, you’re looking at a much shorter payback period!
- Assuming an 8.2% increase in electricity costs each year and you use more electricity
Gross cost of a 6 kW solar array = $4.87/Watt x 6000 = $29,220
Federal tax credit of 30% = $8,766
Net cost of solar = $20,454
Cost of electricity in San Francisco = $0.307/kWh
Average electricity use in San Francisco = 9644 kWh per year
Estimated cost of electricity for first 6 years = $21,829.38
Six-year savings (assuming 90% of energy bill offset by going solar) = $19,646.44
Solar payback period = just over six years!
What if you install a much larger home solar array in San Francisco, CA, using the best solar panels from SunPower?
Even then, given the huge savings on electricity costs each year, and the potential for net metering, rebates, and tax credits, your solar payback period is likely to be well under a decade, meaning you get to enjoy around 20 years of free electricity!