Climate change has resulted in increasing extreme weather events from hurricanes and flooding to droughts and wildfires, with drastic public health and economic implications.
The U.N.’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) just released a report which predicts a bleak future for this planet if emissions aren’t cut drastically, prompting John Kerry and other global leaders to call for immediate action.
Today’s report from the @IPCC_CH shows that we cannot afford further delay. The science has been certain for decades, but the latest report makes it abundantly clear – the climate crisis is not only here, it is growing increasingly severe.
— Special Presidential Envoy John Kerry (@ClimateEnvoy) August 9, 2021
Cities across the United States and Canada have already experienced the effects of climate change, especially in southeastern states. In addition to rising temperatures and humidity, sea level rise, storm surge, and flooding have left buildings in coastal cities vulnerable to damage.
Martin Boonzaayer, CEO of The Trusted Home Buyer, called sea level rise, “the most immediate and measurable threat to the housing market.”
However, sea level rise isn’t the only factor. The western U.S. faces what are likely to be fire seasons that are more intense, and that last longer. This summer alone has been historic for wildfires, with multiple fires burning on the west coast including the nearly 400,000 acre Bootleg Fire in Oregon.
Even cities far from the front lines of climate change have been feeling the effect. This summer, the smoke from wildfires has traveled thousands of miles to cities like New York and Philadelphia, which experienced lower air quality levels.
Evaluating climate havens
In the wake of such threats, some people have considered moving to places where the effects of climate change may be less severe. Such places have been termed ‘climate sanctuaries’ or ‘climate havens.’
Important qualities of climate sanctuaries include a mild climate that will withstand warming temperatures, minimal threat of wildfire, and low exposure to intense storms. Access to resources is another critical consideration, such as proximity to freshwater and crop yields. These places are less likely to face economic losses due to climate change.
According to Tony Mariotti, a luxury real estate broker and CEO of RubyHome, population density is another important consideration for climate sanctuaries. Cities with smaller population densities not only have more room to grow, but also trap less heat.
How we built this list
Our list of potential climate haven cities was formulated predominantly using data from the Rhodium Group published by ProPublica and the Climate Atlas of Canada, as well as the suggestions of real estate experts.
In the U.S., the ideal climate zone is moving north, meaning many climate havens in the United States are in northeast/midwest cities. While nowhere is totally safe from climate change, and many of these cities are expected to see higher temperatures and precipitation in the next several decades, the changes are expected to be less drastic.
Although the United Nations has warned that things could get much worse in the next decade, ProPublica assigned scores U.S. counties for multiple climate characteristics including heat, sea level rise, and economic damage for projections between 2040 and 2060. The Climate Atlas of Canada provides climate projection data for annual temperature, number of very hot days, and more. All projections included in this article are under the RCP 8.5 scenario, which seems more likely to our team in light of the IPCC report.
Considering these sources, below is a list of ten U.S. and Canadian cities that may see greater real estate speculation and population growth as climate sanctuaries.
#1. Buffalo, New York
Often associated with excessive snowfall and hostile winter temperatures, Buffalo is a promising potential climate sanctuary. Located on the eastern side of Lake Erie, the city has plentiful access to fresh water. Buffalo’s proximity to the lake also maintains the city’s mild summer temperatures. Over the past two decades, summer temperatures (June-August) have averaged about 70 °F, making the city an attractive option for those looking to move away from warmer climates.
Erie County, NY, National Risk Index Score: Relatively Low, 79th percentile
ProPublica risk scores (out of 10):
- Heat – 3
- Wet bulb temperature (humidity) – 4
- Crop yields – 3, Sea level rise – 1
- Very large fires – 1
- Economic damage – 4
#2. Cleveland, Ohio
According to Mariotti, real estate markets in Ohio are likely future climate sanctuaries due to their wealth of natural resources. With a relatively low population density and Lake Erie to its north, Cleveland is a promising candidate. Apart from its access to a large supply of freshwater, the city has a fairly mild climate, with an average annual temperature of 52.4 °F and average summer temperature of 72.6 °F.
Cuyahoga County National Risk Index Score: Relatively Moderate, 97th percentile
ProPublica risk scores:
- Heat – 3
- Wet bulb temperature (humidity) – 5
- Crop yields – 3
- Sea level rise – 1
- Very large fires – 1
- Economic damage – 4
#3. Duluth, Minnesota
Multiple sources including Mariotti have listed Duluth as a potential climate sanctuary. Duluth is another Great Lakes city, located on Lake Superior. The city is already growing with people moving to avoid the impacts of climate change. Duluth is known for being cold, sometimes called “the air-conditioned city.”
St. Louis County National Risk Index Score: Relatively Low, 67th percentile
ProPublica risk scores:
- Heat – 3
- Wet bulb temperature (humidity) – 1
- Crop yields – 3
- Sea level rise – 1
- Very large fires – 7
- Economic damage – 4
#4. Erie, Pennsylvania
Like Buffalo and Cleveland, this aptly named city borders Lake Erie. In addition to lake access, this city’s advantages include a low population density with room to grow. Erie County has the second lowest National Risk Index percentile after Green Bay. An average temperature of 70.8 °F during the summer and 50.8 °F annually, Erie may provide respite for those moving from hot and humid cities.
Erie County, PA, National Risk Index Score: Relatively Low, 65th percentile
ProPublica risk scores:
- Heat – 3
- Wet bulb temperature (humidity) – 1
- Crop yields – 3
- Sea level rise – 1
- Very large fires – 1
- Economic damage – 4
#5. Grand Rapids, Michigan
Another prime climate sanctuary state according to Mariotti, Michigan is surrounded by great lakes. In the western part of the state, Grand Rapids is about 30 miles from Lake Michigan. While the city is not directly on the water like others in this list, the Grand River running through it provides fresh water. While temperatures in the city have risen over the past several decades, the climate is still relatively mild as the lake regulates temperatures.
Kent County National Risk Index Score: Relatively Moderate, 93rd percentile
ProPublica risk scores:
- Heat – 3
- Wet bulb temperature (humidity) – 2
- Crop yields – 3
- Sea level rise – 1
- Very large fires – 1
- Economic damage – 4
#6. Green Bay, Wisconsin
Green Bay is named for the bay it borders off Lake Michigan. Brown County is the only place listed whose risk index is ‘Very Low,’ with little threat of economic loss and high resilience. While the city does not experience much of a lake effect like other possible climate sanctuaries, with an average annual temperature (1981-2010) of 45.1 °F, Green Bay’s overall cooler climate will be advantageous as temperatures continue to rise globally.
Brown County National Risk Index Score: Very Low, 35th percentile
ProPublica risk scores:
- Heat – 3
- Wet bulb temperature (humidity) – 1
- Crop yields – 3
- Sea level rise – 1
- Very large fires – 1
- Economic damage – 4
#7. Thunder Bay, Ontario
Thunder Bay is a small Canadian city on Lake Superior. Fires in northwest Ontario have forced some First Nations communities to evacuate to various cities including Thunder Bay. The city generally experiences its warmest temperatures during July, averaging 66 °F. Of the three Canadian cities on this list, Thunder Bay is expected to have the lowest increase in very hot days.
Expected difference between 1976-2005 mean and 2051-2080 mean in annual…
- temperature: +8.73 °F
- very hot days (over 86 °F): +21 days
- precipitation: +67mm
- frost-free season: +46 days
#8. Toledo, Ohio
Multiple outlets have cited Toledo, another city near Lake Erie, as a climate sanctuary. Summer temperatures in the city average in the low to mid 70s. Like other midwestern cities, Toledo’s position inland protects it from coastal storms. The city has consistent rainfall, even in drier months, meaning there is low risk of drought.
Lucas County National Risk Index Score: Relatively Moderate, 91st percentile
ProPublica risk scores:
- Heat – 4
- Wet bulb temperature (humidity) – 5
- Crop yields – 3
- Sea level rise – 1
- Very large fires – 1
- Economic damage – 4
#9. Quebec, Quebec
Located on the St. Lawrence river, Quebec will not only provide fresh water access, but also a cool climate. Like Toledo, the city gets ample rainfall. While smoke from fires in Ontario has affected air quality in Quebec, projected changes in some climatic characteristics seem to be more severe in other cities, like Toronto (+43 very hot days) and Vancouver, which is threatened by sea level rise on the west coast.
Expected difference between 1976-2005 mean and 2051-2080 mean in annual…
- Temperature: +8.1 °F
- Very hot days (over 86 °F): +30 days
- Precipitation: +141mm
- Frost-free season: +44 days
#10. Winnipeg, Manitoba
In the country with the greatest number of lakes, Winnipeg is well positioned near Lake Winnipeg and Lake Manitoba. Two rivers (the Red River and Assiniboine River) run through the city, leaving residents with great access to water. This coupled with Winnipeg’s cool climate may make the city an appealing option for climate migrants.
Expected difference between 1976-2005 mean and 2051-2080 mean in annual…
- Temperature: +8.64 °F
- Very hot days (over 86 °F): +38 days
- Precipitation: +34mm
- Frost-free season: +38 days
Concerns over climate gentrification
Large scale movement of people to climate sanctuaries will affect current residents. Marriotti stated that as people move to these regions, housing prices will likely rise.
In fact, William Seavey, former head of the Greener Pastures Institute (an organization that helped people move to rural towns), pointed out that “only the very fortunate (and prescient) can afford to move […] climate sanctuaries.” This has caused some concern about climate gentrification in potential climate sanctuary cities like Buffalo.
In addition to economic changes, new people moving to climate sanctuaries “might start to try changing the cities to reflect the cities they fled,” Marriotti said. This has happened in other cities gaining popularity, such as Kingston, NY, where the needs of long-term residents and new residents have clashed.
Corinne Rice-Grey Cloud, activist, journalist, and founder of Rice Consulting LLC, noted that migration to climate sanctuaries will especially impact Indigenous people in places where people are moving and those they leave behind. Many Indigenous people in the U.S. and Canada live in areas greatly threatened by climate change and do not have the resources to move nor do they want to leave behind their homes which carry great cultural importance.
Additionally, gentrification and disrespect for sacred spaces are concerns for Indigenous people living in climate sanctuaries. People coming to Native land seeking sanctuary and causing harm is not a new issue, but one that began at first contact.
Rice-Grey Cloud said that to ensure the sustainability of future climate sanctuaries, newcomers must “recognize the sovereignty of each nation they’re about to step into” and acknowledge and implement Indigenous environmental stewardship practices.
Her advice to those looking to move is to avoid “trying to change the community to better fit [themselves],” and rather be a positive contributing presence in their new cities.
There is no planet B
While climate sanctuaries have given hope to people with the means to move, some people have pushed back against the concept. The term may be misleading as no place is immune to climate change. Temperatures will continue to rise across the globe, including in the cities on this list.
While opinions on the validity of climate sanctuaries as a concept vary, the threats posed by climate change in regions across the U.S. and Canada are undeniable, leaving many considering a move to cities where such risks are not as pronounced yet. This climate-driven migration will change the social and economic landscapes of these cities.